Iran is at a tipping point to revolution--so why aren't we pushing?

Revolutions never turn out the way they were originally envisioned. That’s right, none of them; not even ours. When the American Revolution broke out, the idea was intended to be for a loose grouping of states combining together for defense and other universally critical issues (oddly, this did not include most economic matters) at the national level while the main power was held by the states. The Constitution’s passage and the emergence of President Washington brought about a much more united United States that was desired in 1776 (or 1783, for that matter).

The French Revolution was supposed to end up in a pseudo-American government in France, perhaps even with King Louis XVI remaining as a Constitutional Monarch with major control being in the hands of Lafayette. Of course, this revolt descended into madness, with the likes of Danton and Robespierre holding maniacal power before a short Corsican showed up, took power and eventually became emperor.

The revolutions in Russia and China were supposed to bring about the great “Worker’s State”; they ended up being totalitarian nightmare regimes. So has Iran, which had its own revolution just three decades ago and was supposed to be an Islamic Republic.

So much for that idea. We can see now that the only difference between Ahmadinejad’s Iran and the North Korea of the Kims is beard length and clothing style. They’re both totalitarian governments with sham elections with a bunch of insane militarists in control. Allegedly, Ayatollah Khamenei’s running Iran, but I’m not so sure of that anymore. He could just be a figurehead, with the disgustingly corrupt system he allowed to grow under him having gobbled him up. In any case, it’s the military, these neo-terrorist “militias” and ol’ landslide Ahmadinejad who have become just as big a problem as Grand Don Khamenei. And they’re big problems, as in, “We’ll start a nuclear exchange with Israel if you give us a little bit.”

So it behooves Barack Obama to do look at this stolen election, the hundreds of thousands of people risking their lives in the streets to protest, and do…nothing? For a supposedly intelligent guy, Obama can certainly act stupid. This is a sparkling example.

Obama, being from the Jimmy Carter school of cowardly diplomacy, doesn’t want to be seen “meddling.” He doesn’t want to offend Khamenei or Ahmadinejad, who he thinks can still be negotiated with. He also thinks that Mousavi is no different from Ahmadinejad, as he was once a company man himself.

But there’s the thing America’s Dear Leader neglects to understand: this isn’t about Mousavi; it’s about the system and the people in the streets. They’ve had enough of this crap and the election is has been the conduit to release their frustrations. Mousavi may have the idea of becoming president of the Islamic Republic and continuing down a slightly more moderate course than Ahamadinejad—the people in the streets don’t. They see Mousavi as a means to an end, a guy who can replace the evil Ayatollah and his insane puppet, then be pushed aside himself if he’s not ready to follow their course.

Their course, of course, is not that of an Islamic republic. The people of Iran now find the Islamic republic to be synonymous with a Stalinist police state, one that tramples on their rights, their privacy and their ability to act as an individual in the name of Allah. It’s also a form of government that may be leading them to down the road to annihilation, as Khamenei/Ahmadinejad pick a fight with two of the biggest dogs on the porch in the U.S. and Israel (not that we’re going to do anything about it, but Netanyahu is going to bomb the hell out of them if he has to). In all, it’s not a good way to live and nothing like what was advertised.

There is sizeable unrest and discontent. Mousavi probably did win the election, and if Ahmadinejad is so damned popular, where are his people (and why, in the one rally he did have, was it necessary to Photoshop thousands of more spectators in)? Why haven’t they risen up to crush the Mousavi protests as a sign of the “silent majority”? Probably because they aren’t the majority; the Mousavists are. Iran is ready to snap; with the right push, their Bastille Day is neigh. Obama can provide that push, and he doesn’t have the guts to do it.

Over the last few days, there has been a lot of discussion on the blogs about President Reagan’s response to the communist crackdown in Poland in 1981. I hadn’t given it much thought, considering that it appears that that revolution didn’t work. But it did; Solidarity eventually triumphed, not just reforming communist Poland but overthrowing it entirely. They didn’t quit, not only because Lech Walesa wouldn’t let them, but because they knew Pope John Paul II and Ronald Reagan were outside the fence, reminding the world of the evils of the present regime and letting them know they aren’t alone.

Obama doesn’t have to get actively involved for this revolt to win. In fact, his wussified idea that our presence might be a hinderance might be true—for about 10 percent of Mousavi’s supporters. Most want American help; they crave it. They see America as freedom. They see their Shiite brothers in Iraq free now, thanks to the United States. And don’t think that’s not an issue here; they know that Iraqi Shiites control more of their destiny now than they did under Saddam and more than Iranian Shiites ever have under the Shah or the Ayatollahs. They also know that their government, under Khamenei/Ahmadinejad, killed many of their religious brothers while trying to defeat George W. Bush—and failed. Instead of breaking the Americans (nice try on the assist, Democrats), the Iranian involvement in Iraq may end up breaking this system of government.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the people of Iran no longer want this regime or its idiot leadership. They are willing, it appears, to defy the police state and march right in front of the guns and tanks. This failed in China but worked in Romania in 1989, with much bloodshed in both cases. The Romanians, however, had the support of the world (i.e. George Bush). The Chinese protesters (to Bush’s eternal shame) got no backing at all. Obama must realize that the current regime in Iran hates us and will continue to hate us, no matter what sucking up he does. It’s time to play hardball and push back—they’re a lot closer to falling than we are. If it doesn’t work, what has the U.S. lost? Nothing. But the people of Iran could have gained a lot.

Taking this step, however, requires vision. It requires seeing that what’s going on in the streets now is not the vision of Mousavi, but the vision of the thousands of people defying evil. They’re not doing it for a moderate Islamic republic—they’re doing it for liberty. President Reagan said in 1981 that the torch of liberty warms those who seek it and burns those who try to take it away—Obama should raise that torch, just with a few words, and see if the Iranian police state catches aflame.